Who is the real leader of the Global South?
India chaired the G20 presidency for 2023 and has made commendable progress in projecting itself as a rising power. Today with a GDP of more than USD 3.74 trillion, its viewed as a major geo-political player and the counter-weight to China.
While the economy of the US is roughly USD 26 trillion and that of China is USD 19 Trillion, India lags behind these super economies by a massive margin. The Economic and Politic clout of China and US are literally shaping the geo-political engagements in the present world and India, unfortunately has a long way to go to reach the level these global powerhouses are stationed currently at.
But a lot of things have changed for India in the last 10 years or so and is increasingly being wooed by both the west and the east due to its non-aligned geo-political posture.
One fine example of this enhanced status of India was demonstrated in the G20 Summit.
India chaired the presidency of the G20 for the year 2023 and was able to reach a “Joint communique” in record time. It was unanimous success and was adopted by a thumping majority. India was able to widen perspective, especially of the west and the US, towards more inclusive issues than just the war in Ukraine.
India was also successful to include the African Union as the newest member in the G2O group thus paving a path to building a more equitable, balanced and representative world body for the future.
So now with all these events, India wants to capitalise and what does it do?
India has also been projecting as a leader of Global South however this remains a narrative that India has itself designed and not what the world sees India as, well not immediately.
The reason is clear, To become the leader of the global south, India has to outdo, out-influence and out-manoeuvre the Reigning Champion – China
The Clout of China that has shaped and is shaping geo-political exchanges is way more powerful than that of India.
Let’s look at the stats to begin with and also estimate the Clout both these countries Exhibit.
- The Powerful Leaders of the World List as per Forbes ranks Xi JinPing at No 1 while Narendra Modi is at 9.
- The GDP of China is close to 19 trillion dollars while India is at 3.6 trillion Dollars
- Defence Spending of China is close to $300 billion while India’s budget pales at $80 billion
- As per Brand Finance’s Global Soft Power List, China is at No 5, behind, US, UK, Germany and Japan while India is nowhere close. It does not even make the Top 20 list
It’s clear that China is eons ahead of India and it seems that there is a lot of work to be done from India’s side to be viewed in the same league as China.
But let’s now focus on the Global South.
Now what is the Global South?
Global South refers to countries characterised by Low Income, Dense Population, Poor Infrastructure, Political and Cultural Marginalization. The Global South broadly comprises Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, Asia without Israel, Japan, and South Korea.
The Global North comprises Europe, North America, Japan, Korea, Australia, New-Zealand etc. In short, Global South are Developing Countries or once were referred to as the “Third World”
India and the Indian Media have Started this media frenzy claiming that “India is the Leader of the Global South” and “India is the Voice of the Global South”.
<<< Enter clips of India Media Frenzy on Global South>>
But what is actually behind the scenes?
Let’s talk about one area that is the most defining parameter: Lending!!
As far as lending to African Countries is concerned, India is way behind China.
According to the Financial Times, India’s Cumulative developmental assistance since Independence has been $107 Billion while the scale of China’s assistance through its Belt and Road Initiative alone is $840 billion.
As per reports, India has pledged $32 billion in the last decade towards developmental projects in Africa and China has pledged $135 billion dollars in the same period.
So, the question on my mind then is, if China is more impactful than India, how is India being viewed as a Leader of the Global South?
Moreover, For the African Nations especially, China is a stronger inspiration than India as far as economic growth and prosperity is concerned. Both China and India were on similar GDP value once upon a time but one is now a Super-Power, while India is only a Regional Power. The trajectory of China, a country as impoverished as India once was, today rising to global supremacy is far more powerful than India’s. China is a country that has seen rapid progress and now is being regarded as a Developed Country in many parameters while India is still teetering in poverty, inequality and internal problems.
So the questions to ask are:
- What is the basis of this narrative of India being the leader of the Global South
- If the loans and assistance provided to African countries show China leading from the front, how is India portraying itself in the same league?
- What are we missing?
- What is the Truth?
One of the viewpoints is that India’s role in Africa is altruistic and cooperative, China’s Investment has often been seen as Predatory in Nature often leading to so called “Debt Traps” leading to countries pledging valuable resources to China in exchange for non-payment.
The truth is very simple, Altruism and Cooperation is great but what’s better is “Financial Aid”
When it comes to being a leader, the country with the larger pocket and size of disbursements matters more than just simply a country that is “voicing out for the Global South”.
India just simply can’t appear one fine day and take the leadership especially when China has committed more time, energy, policy and loans to Africa. India at best is a “Voice of the Global South” which is still a significant step for a country that has more problems internally that China.
The rising dependence of the West on India to counter China has given rise to yet another phrase “Counter-weight to China”. While this suits India and allows us to bask in the limelight, it’s important to understand that this phrase suits the interest of the “West” who views Chinas policy as predatory and territorial. If India were to join hands with China, the west would have no use of India. On the contrary, this would fuel fire against this hypothetical alliance. So in short, the Current leader of the Global South, is China.
And the Hype India’s steroid induced Media has created is far from reality. Perhaps this is because India is now a rising power and that has fuelled nationalistic sentiments across India and the media ignites it more by fuelling it. Perhaps it’s a voice of India seeking approval from the world, something that is built into our DNA. Perhaps its us, screaming to be heard, in a world that’s ruled by the west and China Or perhaps it’s because as a Nation, we are now being heard.